Assembly of First Nations (AFN) Bulletin – Key Ridings Where First Nations Votes Can Determine the Outcomes

Mar 28, 2025

Summary:

• The 45th General Federal Election is taking place on April 28, 2025.
• The AFN has identified 36 federal ridings across Canada where First Nations electors could decide the outcomes of the April 2025 general election​.

• This analysis used Census 2021 population data and Election Canada’s voting results from the 2021 federal election.
• In 25 of these 36 ridings, the number of First Nations electors is greater than the margin of victory from the 2021 election (the difference in votes between the winning candidate and the runner-up).

• 19 of the 36 ridings have a First Nations electorate of 10% or more of all eligible voters​.

• The 2025 election will be the first conducted under the new boundaries set by the 2023 Representation Orders, which adjusted 338 federal electoral districts and added five new ridings (three in Alberta, one in Ontario, and one in British Columbia).
• The full analysis is available on the AFN website at www.afn.ca.

The Assembly of First Nations (AFN) has conducted an analysis of the 2025 federal election, using Census 2021 population data and Election Canada’s voting results from the 2021 federal election. The analysis identifies 36 federal electoral districts (ridings) where First Nations electors make up a significant portion of the electorate. In many of these ridings, the number of First Nations electors either exceeds or is close to the margin of victory from the 2021 federal election.

The margin of victory refers to the percentage difference between the winning candidate and the runner-up in the last election. In cases where the number of First Nations electors is higher than this margin, it indicates that First Nations participation could be a determining factor in the outcomes of the 2025 election. An electorate refers to all eligible voters in a riding. First Nations electors include both those living in First Nations communities and those living in urban areas.

Key Findings

• 36 ridings have been identified where First Nations electors represent a significant portion of the electorate.
• In 19 ridings, First Nations electors make up at least 10% of all eligible voters.
• In 25 ridings, the number of First Nations electors exceeds the 2021 election’s margin of victory for the winning candidate.
• These key ridings are spread across multiple provinces and territories, including British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, Yukon, and the Northwest Territories.
• The 2023 Representation Orders have adjusted electoral boundaries in some areas, affecting which communities are included in certain ridings. This has increased the significance of First Nations electors in some districts.
• The five newly created ridings include three in Alberta, one in Ontario, and one in British Columbia.

Electoral Boundary Changes

The 2023 Representation Orders set new federal electoral district (riding) boundaries to reflect population changes and ensure fair representation in the House of Commons. These updates include:

• Some ridings have been redrawn to include new communities, changing their voter composition.
• Five new ridings have been created, affecting representation in Alberta, Ontario, and British Columbia.
• Certain ridings now have an increase of First Nations electors.

To check your federal riding, visit the Elections Canada website at www.elections.ca and use the “My Voter Information” tool. This tool allows electors to enter their postal code to determine their riding.

Access the Analysis

The full analysis, titled “First Nations Voters Can Decide the 2025 Federal Election Outcome”, including a list of the 36 key ridings and data, is available on the AFN website at www.afn.ca.

For further details on the 45th General Federal Election, visit www.afn.ca or contact electoraloutreach@afn.ca.

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